Promoting the use of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) has become a long-term transportation strategy in California, which can bring a broad range of social, economic, and environmental benefits. Based on a sample of 3260 California residents from the 2018 California Panel Survey, this study explores the impacts of latent attitudes, socio-demographic characteristics, and neighborhood effects on consumers’ current vehicle fuel type choice and their interest in purchasing or leasing an AFV in the future. One joint integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model is estimated to understand the taste heterogeneity within different population segments. The results suggest that latent attitudes towards environment, new technologies, car-utilitarianism, and residential location preference play critical roles in individuals’ adopting new vehicle technologies. A range of socio-demographics, including age, race, gender, student status, education level, income level, household size, housing tenure, housing type and residential parking also make effects. Exposure to BEVs in both residential location and worksite has positive influence on AFV adoption, although public EV charging stations were not found to be essential factors since our respondents may mainly rely on home chargers. Moreover, the study suggests that individual’s current user experience with AFVs has positive effect on their future interest in AFV. Overall, the research team predicts that the maximum market penetration of AFVs could be 41% of adult population. The findings offer detailed guidance on crafting California’s transport policy to promote AFV, regarding the heterogeneity of the population's preferences and attitudes.
